Archief Prof. Ir. J.J. Peters

The central role of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability in modulating Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate has long been known. However, the prevailing pathways of teleconnections in observations and the ability of climate models to replicate these observed linkages remain elusive. Here, we apply maximum covariance analysis between atmospheric circulation and tropical SST to reveal two coexisting tropical–extratropical teleconnections albeit with distinctive spatiotemporal characteristics. The first mode, resembling the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, favors a tropical–Arctic in-phase (warm Pacific–warm Arctic) teleconnection in boreal spring and winter. However, the second mode, with a slight seasonal preference of summer, is manifested as an elongated Rossby wave train emanating from the tropical eastern Pacific that features an out-of-phase relationship (cold Pacific–warm Arctic) between tropical central Pacific SSTs and temperature variability over the Arctic (referred to as the PARC mode). While climate models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) appear to successfully simulate the PNA mode and its temporal characteristics, the majority of models’ skill in reproducing the PARC mode is obstructed to some extent by biases in simulating low-frequency SST and rainfall variability over the tropical eastern Pacific and the climatological mean flow over the North Pacific during boreal summer. Considering the contribution of the PARC mode in shaping low-frequency climate variations over the past 42 years from the tropics to the Arctic, improving models’ capability to capture the PARC mode is essential to reduce uncertainties associated with decadal prediction and climate change projection over the NH.