Archive Prof. Eng. J.J. Peters

About the archive

In 2012 we lost Jean Jacques Peters, former engineer of Flanders Hydraulics Research (1964 till 1979) and international expert in sediment transport, river hydraulics and morphology. As a tribute to him we have created potamology, a virtual memorial archive whose aim is to preserve and disseminate his way of thinking and his morphological approach to river problems all over the world.
This archive provides four modules, each with its specific information set relevant to Peters’ work. Where available and if not confidential, there will also be access to the full text. In dialogue with Peters’ family we continue to make his life’s work accessible.


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Advancements in decadal climate predictability: the role of nonoceanic drivers
Bellucci, A.; Haarsma, R.; Bellouin, N.; Booth, B.; Cagnazzo, C.; van den Hurk, B.; Keenlyside, N.; Koenigk, T.; Massonnet, F.; Materia, S.; Weiss, M. (2015). Advancements in decadal climate predictability: the role of nonoceanic drivers. Rev. Geophys. 53(2): 165-202. https://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/2014RG000473
In: Reviews of Geophysics. AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION: Washington, D.C.. ISSN 8755-1209; e-ISSN 1944-9208
Peer reviewed article  

Available in  Authors 
    Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee: Open access 314144 [ download pdf ]

Keyword
    Marine
Author keywords
    decadal predictability; decadal variability; climate prediction; Earthsystem models

Authors  Top 
  • Bellucci, A.
  • Haarsma, R.
  • Bellouin, N.
  • Booth, B.
  • Cagnazzo, C.
  • van den Hurk, B.
  • Keenlyside, N.
  • Koenigk, T.
  • Massonnet, F.
  • Materia, S.
  • Weiss, M.

Abstract
    We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as signal carriers, transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

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